KEY TAKEAWAYS: Consumer sentiment fell 5 percent from 101.0 in February to 95.9 in March as concerns about COVID-19 grow. This decline is slightly below market expectations, which expected a decline to 95.0 in March’s preliminary reading. The largest contributing factor to the decline was the sub-component about the year ahead, which fell 29 points […]

KEY POINTS: The labor force participation rate measures the share of the population actively participating in the labor market. This includes individuals currently employed and those actively looking for work. Despite the strength of the labor market in this record-long expansion, the labor force participation rate has not recovered to pre-crisis levels. This is partially […]

KEY TAKEAWAYS: The U.S. economy added 273,000 jobs in February, roundly beating market expectations. Earlier this week, ADP estimated the U.S. would add 183,000 jobs in February. The number of jobs added in December 2019 and January 2020 were also revised upward by 37,000 and 48,000, respectively. Since December 2016, the U.S. economy has added […]

Key Points: Median wage growth has been strong across the board, averaging 3.7 percent in January 2020, according to the Altanta Fed Wage Tracker. Low-income earners’ wages grew 4.7 percent, the highest growth among any income group and above the 4.2 percent rate of average growth since December 2016. Wage growth for the bottom has quartile […]

Key Points: U.S. construction spending was $1,369.2 billion in January 2020 at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. This represented a 1.8 percent increase from December and a 6.8 percent increase from the January 2019 (year-ago) estimate. The increase in construction spending surpassed market expectations of a 0.9 percent increase from December. Economist Corner: Stronger than […]

KEY POINTS: U.S. carbon emissions peaked in 2007 at 6.0 billion metric tons and have since fallen by 12 percent to 5.3 billion metric tons in 2018. Though carbon emissions increased 3 percent from 5.1 billion metric tons in 2017 to 5.3 billion metric tons in 2018, this can be partially explained by stronger economic […]

KEY POINTS: The impact of Coronavirus on U.S. equity markets has become more significant over the past few days, as markets fear the impact on the U.S. will be larger. The S&P 500 down 6.1 percent since its recent peak on January 17th, 2020, after China reported the virus to the World Health Organization. This […]

KEY POINTS: U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) per capita increased by $2,315 from 2016 through 2018. This was the largest increase among G7 countries over this period, increasing $704 more than the next-highest country (Germany). Over the same period, GDP per capita in other G7 countries increased by $1,226 on average. ECONOMIST CORNER: The U.S. […]

Key Points: Average hourly earnings rose 3.1 percent in January for private sector employees. Wage growth has been at or above 2.9 percent for 18 consecutive months. Economist Corner: As the record-long economic expansion continues, average hourly earnings for all private employees have continued to increase at or above 2.9 percent. These gains benefit low-skilled […]

KEY POINTS: Economic growth among G7 countries is expected to average 1.0 percent in 2020, according to OECD forecasts. However, the U.S. is expected to grow at the much faster rate of 2.0 percent in 2020. Higher U.S. growth is driven, in part, by higher projected levels of investment. ECONOMIST CORNER: The U.S. economy is […]

KEY POINTS: The labor force participation rate measures the share of the population that is employed or actively seeking employment. The record-long economic expansion has pulled workers off the sidelines, raising the labor force participation rate for most states. Among the states with the largest increases in the labor force participation rate since December 2016 […]

KEY POINTS: The index of consumers sentiment rose 1.1 percent in February from January to the highest level since 2018, exceeding market expectations. The index has risen 2.75 percent since December 2016. The expected index, an indicator of how consumers’ future sentiment expectations, also rose to 92.6. This data aligns with recent Gallup surveys, showing […]

Key Points: U.S. manufacturing employment continues to emerge from its secular decline. Manufacturing employment remains well about its pre-2017 trend, with the economy adding 423,000 manufacturing jobs since December 2016 relative to a linear trend estimated from January 2015 through December 2016. The net change in manufacturing employment since December 2016 has been 495,000 manufacturing […]

KEY POINTS: The U.S. economy added 225,000 jobs in January as the unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 3.6 percent. The largest job gains were experienced in the construction (+44,000 jobs), health care (+36,000 jobs), and transportation and warehousing (+28,000 jobs). Since December 2016, the U.S. economy has added a total of 6.7 million jobs. […]

KEY POINTS: The manufacturing sector rebounded in January, with the purchasing managers index (PMI) rising 3.1 percentage points in January to 50.9 percent. This indicates an expanding manufacturing sector after several months of contraction. Six of the PMI’s 10 subindexes recorded an expansion in January. Among these, the most pronounced were production (up 6 percentage […]

KEY POINTS: This interactive map allows you to explore out-migration from your state in 2018. Click the top right to toggle between Marginal Tax Rates and Net Migration. States with higher marginal tax rates, like California and New York, have experienced the largest out-migration in the last year. Conversely, states with no income tax, like […]

KEY POINTS: While the awful human cost of the Coronavirus is climbing, and disruptions in China are now severe, the Coronavirus has thus far had a modest impact on U.S. equity markets. The S&P 500 down 3.1 percent since its recent peak on January 17th, 2020, after China reported the virus to the World Health […]

KEY POINTS: In the three years since December 2016, the unemployment rate has fallen in all but three states (Mississippi, Nebraska which was unchanged, and South Dakota). The average state has experienced a decline in the unemployment rate of 0.9 percentage points over this period. When taken as a share of population, the states with […]

KEY POINTS: Higher marginal tax rates are correlated with greater outmigration in 2018. New York and California had among the highest marginal tax rates and experienced the largest net outmigration in 2018. Texas and Florida, states without any income taxes, experienced the largest net migration in 2018 with over 100,000 individuals moving. ECONOMIST CORNER In […]

Key Points: Median wage growth ticked up 3.7 percent in December, according to the Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker. The largest growth has been among the lowest 25 percent of income earners, who experienced wage growth of 4.6 percent in December. Since December 2016, wage growth for this group has averaged 4.1 percent. ECONOMIST CORNER: The […]

KEY POINTS: Total tax receipts in the first fiscal quarter of 2020 increased by $35 billion compared with the same period last year. This represents a 5 percent increase in tax receipts, raising the overall level to $806 billion. This is partially driven by an increase in corporate income taxes, which increased by $11 billion […]

Key points: 86 Percent of the total tax reduction from the state and local tax (SALT) cap repeal goes to rich taxpayers making over $500,000; though they are just one percent of total taxpayers. The biggest effect of SALT repeal would be to lower taxes on the rich in high tax states; the SALT repeal […]

In December 2019, the House passed the “Restoring Tax Fairness for States and Localities Act” by a 218 to 206 margin.   The bill would eliminate the $10,000 limit on State and Local Tax (SALT) deductions that was put in place by the 2017 tax bill for 2020 and 2021 for taxpayers who itemize their tax […]

Key Points: Real disposable income per household has increased $6,913 since December 2016. Disposable income is the amount households have left over after income taxes. Economist Corner: Rising real disposable income is further evidence that the Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) has worked as intended. The economics literature suggests that lowering the corporate tax […]

Key Points: GDP has been stronger than projected by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), with the level in the third quarter of 2019 1.45 percent greater than projected in the CBO’s August 2016 release. Consensus forecasts for the fourth quarter expect this outperformance to continue into this year. This translates to $277 billion in additional […]

Analysis: Google search interest in the word “recession” has fallen in recent months, after spiking in August to levels not seen since the Great Recession. This follows a summer in which the media narrative focused on recession risks. This suggests that the media narrative about an imminent recession is over. Economist Corner: Economic expansions do […]

Key Points: Average hourly earnings rose 2.9 percent in December for private sector employees. Wage growth has been at or above 2.9 percent for 17 consecutive months. Economist Corner: A tight labor market combined with positive business sentiment continues to put upward pressure on wages. This is good news for future consumption, a key driver […]

Key Points: The U.S. economy added 145,000 jobs in December, slightly below market expectations of 160,000 jobs. Since December 2016, the economy has created more than 6.9 million jobs. This is 5.3 million more jobs than the 1.7 million projected by the Congressional Budget Office for that time period. Significant positive momentum in the U.S. […]

Key Points: Manufacturing employment slipped slightly in December but remained well above its pre-2017 trend. The economy has added 435,000 manufacturing jobs since January 2017 relative to a linear trend estimated from January 2015 through December 2016. Economist Corner: Employment in the manufacturing sector has experienced a resurgence since December 2016, with 435,000 jobs created […]

Analysis: Average hourly earnings rose 3.1 percent in October for private sector employees. Wage growth has been at or above 3.0 percent for 16 consecutive months. Economist Corner: A tight labor combined with positive sentiment continue to put upward pressure on wages. This is a positive for consumption, a key driver of the U.S. economy.

Analysis: Manufacturing employment rebounded in November, increasing by 54,000 as the GM strike was resolved. This reversed the employment losses recorded in October due to the strike. There have been 447,000 manufacturing jobs added since January 2017 relative to a linear trend estimated from January 2015 through December 2016. Economist Corner: Employment in the manufacturing […]

Analysis: The U.S. economy added 266,000 jobs in November, exceeding market expectations of approximately 187,000 jobs. Job gains for September and October were revised upward a combined 41,000 jobs. This indicates continued strength in the U.S. labor market. Economist Corner: The labor market continues to boom. A rising tide may lift all boats, but some […]

Economist Corner: The intended effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act continue to appear in the data. Durable goods represent one form of investment by businesses. The data demonstrate that durable goods orders have risen following the tax legislation. But even the subtleties of the legislation now correspond to variation in the data. The […]

Analysis: New orders for manufactured durable goods rose $1.5 billion (0.6 percent) in October. Manufactured durable goods includes big-ticket items, such as household appliances. There has now been increased durable goods orders in four of the last five months. Increased durable goods orders is a positive signal for manufacturing. Economist Corner: Manufacturer orders of new […]

Consumer sentiment rose in November to 96.8, an increase of 1.3 points from above the October reading of 95.5. The expected index, an indicator how consumers’ future sentiment expectations, also rose to 87.3 from 84.2. Economist Corner: As the consumer goes, so goes the economy. That is true at least in the United States. Consumption […]

Analysis: Private housing starts numbered 1.31 million in October, the highest level in 12 years. This is a 3.8 percent increase above housing starts in September, and an 8.5 percent increase since October 2018. Applications for building permits for privately-owned housing units rose to 1.46 million in October, a 5.0 percent increase from September and […]

From December 2016 through September 2019, the share of the population in the labor force has grown across all demographic groups as people come off the sidelines. This is especially true for black men and Hispanic women, through people from every demographic group have increased their participation. Analysis: The labor force participation rate for black […]

There has been particularly significant job growth for Hispanic men and women since December 2016. While America’s Hispanic population has seen the biggest gains, all demographic groups have seen job growth. Analysis: For both men and women, percent increases in jobs were higher for black and Hispanic members of the population than for white members […]

Analysis: Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), appears subdued in the October reading. While headline CPI inched up 0.4 percent in October from September, it has risen 1.8 percent over the last 12 months. The largest contributor to the increase in October was an increase in energy prices. CPI for all items […]

The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) has conducted a monthly survey of small and independent businesses since 1986. The survey, which covers a range of topics about business expectations, hiring decisions, and capital expenditures has been a reliable indicator of the status of businesses.

From December 2016 through September 2019, the U.S. economy has added approximately six million jobs. Key Takeaways: White women have experienced the largest number of labor force gains over this period Overall, about 3.2 million of these labor force gains have been among women while 2.7 million have been by men. Analysis: Projected job gains […]